ARF – Flat Ten To Follow 2019.

By May 3, 2019Ten To Follow

aracingfirst Flat 2019 – Ten To Follow:

Cap Francais, Ed Walker, 3yo Colt.
Ran 3 times as a 2yo and took a big step forward each time. A good 2nd on his debut when looking in need of the experience early on before staying on nicely. He then won a Novice event in nice style, before following up under a penalty at Haydock, giving 6lbs to some nice types over a mile. He’s a big powerful son of Frankel who looks sure to get further and reports suggest he’s wintered really well. He may well reappear in the Epsom Derby Trial, although having been given a mark of 90, picking up a handicap of what we’d suggest was a pretty lenient looking rating would also be an option.
– Update:
Ran a cracker against higher rated runners in the Epsom Derby Trial. Well backed from 10/1 into 5/1, he played up before the race which wouldn’t have helped, but stayed on very well to finish 2nd.
Ran another decent race in the Lingfield Derby Trial in finishing 4th, but he may prefer dropping back to 10 furlongs.
Yet again ran really well at Royal Ascot in the Hampton Court, finishing his race off well in that Group race.
Disappointed at Goodwood, and may just need a drop in class.

Corgi, Hugh Morrison, 4yo Colt.
A progressive handicapper last year, winning a 10 furlongs handicap at Sandown that saw all 6 hoses he beat subsequently win at some stage later in the season. He was then just touched off in the King George V handicap at Royal Ascot, a race that again produced numerous winners including Cross Counter, he clearly improved significantly. Corgi then contested a competitive handicap at Goodwood and found just one too good on that occasion. He didn’t get home having travelled strongly in the Melrose Handicap at York. A mile and a half looks his ideal trip and he’s capable showing further improvement this season and stepping up on his rating of 98, having still raced only 8 times.
Update: Ran a really nice race at York in finishing 3rd in the Ebor qualifier. He travelled really well and will improve for that run.
Ran really well at Royal Ascot finishing in the places in a very competitive handicap.
Stepped back in trip over 1m6f at Newmarket and didn’t seem to get home.

Derevo, Sir Michael Stoute, 3yo Colt.
A once raced colt by Dansili, he made a very encouraging debut at Doncaster when finishing 2nd beaten just over a length in what looked a decent event. The stable don’t tend to have many first time out winners, so the fact he went close suggest he’s got a decent amount of ability. He’s reported to have done really well over the winter and is one we’ve been advised to keep an eye on. He’s expected to win his maiden without any trouble and to progress throughout the season.
– Update:
Reappeared in a Novice Stakes at Chelmsford on the11th of April and won nicely.
Only 4th at Chelmsford next time, it was a funny race, he’ll bounce back in a more strongly run race.
Back on track with an impressive victory, making all and pulling clear to win well at Pontefract.
Won again at Newcastle this time, making it 3 wins from 4 races this season.

Humbolt Current, William Haggas, 4yo Gelding
Having raced just once as a 2yo finishing a highly promising 2nd, much was expected of this chap as a 3yo but he looked a little tricky and disappointed on his first couple of outings. He then made pretty hard work of winning his maiden at Windsor, before winning on handicap debut off a mark of 74, albeit in a 4 runner field. A fair 4th in a ladies rider handicap at York, where he looked like a step up in trip would suit, he won his final start of the season over ten furlongs, in what was his best performance of the season, as he overcame trouble in running and still managed to get up. Having improved with racing, he looks like he’s still got a lot more to offer and can continue to rise the ranks now he’s got his mind fully on the job.

Iridessa, Joseph O’Brien, 3yo Filly.
She was clearly not expected to set the world alight on her debut starting a 20/1 shot, but she defied those odds to win in impressive style. Having been off the bridle early on , she responded really well and stayed on strongly to pull a few lengths clear of the field. She then stepped up in grade to Group 2 company and dropped back to 7 furlongs, which didn’t really suit, but she stayed on nicely into 5th place and would have learnt a lot. Again over the shorter trip on her 3rd outing she once again found herself outpaced, staying on into 3rd place. Her final 2yo start saw a step back up to a mile, and a stiff one at that, at Newmarket. Travelling well behind the leaders she stayed on best of all and won going away to land the Group 1 Fillies Mile. Being a daughter of Derby winner Ruler of the World she’s sure to want further still and whilst she may have a crack at the 1’000 Guineas at Newmarket she’s more of a middle distance filly for us and looks an ideal candidate for the Oaks at Epsom for which she’s generally at 16/1 shot.
Iridessa – Epsom Oaks 31st May – generally 16/1
– Update:
Ran a really nice race in the 1’000 Guineas Trial over a trip a little short and giving 3lbs.
Ran a fair race in the 1000 Guineas finishing 8th. She’ll hopefully be stepped up in trip for Oaks, where we’d expect her to thrive.
Surprisingly ran in the Irish Guineas rather than the Oaks, and proved a little disappointing. She looks like she wants a step up in trip.
Finally stepped up in trip and she wins the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes in really good style with multiple Group 1 horses and the oaks runner up behind. – Such a pity connections didn’t aim her at the Oaks at Epsom!!
Didn’t run her race in the Irish Oaks. 

Kick On, John Gosden, 3yo Colt.
A staying on 2nd on his 2yo debut over 7 furlongs at Newmarket, he showed the benefit of that run when winning his next start, again at Newmarket over a mile. Using his experience, he made all that day and stayed on strongly to win well from numerous subsequent winners. Stepped up considerably in class next time in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster he ran a very nice race. Having been out paced he stayed on really well into a very respectable 6th place, suggesting he’ll be suited by further and is expected to progress into a nice middle distance 3yo.
– Update:
Made is reappearance in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket landing some nice bets from 7/2 into 2/1.
Ran a decent race in the 2000 Guineas, where he’d have found the trip on the sharp side. A step up in trip required.
Didn’t handle the softer conditions at Royal Ascot in a competitive race. Will appreciate a return to a sounder surface.

Lord North, John Gosden, 3yo Colt.
Looked very green and inexperienced prior to his debut when playing up a little beforehand and then starting quite slowly. The loner the race went on the better he looked, coming through to win comfortably under hands and heels. Currently one of the less lights from a powerful yard he’s putting in some nice work and reports suggest he’s one to keep a note of for this season ahead.
– Update:
Won his reappearance in what was just a 2 runner race very very easily.
Played up prior to his last run, and having travelled well wasn’t really asked to get involved. He’s better than that run.

Madhmoon, K Prendergast, 3yo Colt.
An exciting 3yo colt from Ireland having one both his starts last season in impressive fashion. He showed a nice turn off foot to win his debut from a subsequent Group placed horse, who he then beat more comprehensively when following up in a Group 2 at Leopardstown. That was a decent race with the runner up going close in a Group 1 in France next time. Reports suggest Madhmoon has done well over the winter and a has a big season ahead. He may well prove to be a contender for both the Guineas and Derby, and is expected to take in one of the trial races before any Classic plans are made.
Ante Post Advice: 2’000 Guineas at Newmarket 4th May: Madhmoon (e/w) 14/1.
– Update:
Advised for the 2’000 Guineas before his comeback run, where giving 3lbs he was a close 2nd where the winner had the benefit of a run. A little disappointing and he’s generally 20/1 for the 2’000 Guineas, but a still mile will be much more suitable and he’ll benefit a lot from the run.
Ran a cracker in the 2000 Guineas, unfortunately just missing a place in finishing 4th.
Runs a super race in the Epsom Derby, travelling extremely well and just getting done close home by Anthony Van Dyck.
Ran is what was a farcical Irish Derby where the winner was given a soft lead. Probably didn’t stay anyway, and will probably be dropped to ten furlongs next time, with the Irish Champion Stakes a likely target.

Rock Eagle, Ralph Beckett, 4yo Gelding.
A lightly raced 4yo who’s open to any amount of improvement having landed some nice bets for us at the end of last season when winning at Newmarket. Unraced as a 2yo he made his 3yo debut and Windsor, winning well as a relatively unfancied 10/1 shot. He was then 2nd at Salisbury before winning again at Windsor, albeit a pretty average race. He then stepped up massively in grade in a high class Goodwood handicap, where he showed an immense amount of promise staying on strongly into 4th place. That run suggested he needed to step up in trip and being a raw inexperienced horse that first real race would have done him a lot of good. His final race at Newmarket was over 1m4f and he travelled like a classy horse and won with a lot more in hand than the winning margin suggests. He’s a potential huge improver this year over 1m4f and more likely over slightly further. With the huge pot that is now on offer for winning the Ebor Handicap at York, for which he looks an ideal candidate we’d very much expect his season to be tailored towards that race. He’s been raised from a mark of 92 to 97 after that victory at Newmarket and we’re sure he’ll prove to be well above that rating.
Unibet are the only bookmakers that seem to have price that race as yet, and we’d suggest an interest at the 20/1 on offer.
Rock Eagle – Ebor Handicap at York 24th August: 20/1 with Unibet – Non Runner
Update:

Following support from Members, Rock Eagle has shortened to 14/1 with Unibet.
Hopefully other bookmakers will price the race up soon and the 20/1 will again be on offer. – Skybet are now 20/1.
Ran a really encouraging race at Goodwood staying in nicely behind much higher rated rivals.
Frustratingly it looks like Rock Eagle will miss the Ebor. 

Tabdeed, Owen Burrows, 4yo Colt.
A potentially top class sprinter this season and one we’ve not seen the best of yet following just 4 starts to date. He won his only race as a 2yo in impressive style at Leicester in a race that has worked out well. He reappeared as a 3yo at Leicester giving weight away and won very well showing a really nice turn of foot over a 6 furlong trip. Stepped up in class and distance next time in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, he found himself drawn away from the main action and having quickened well to put himself in contention, he seemed not to stay the extra furlong and faded into 12th place. That run showed a lot more promise than his finishing position would suggest and following a layoff due to the stable being under the weather he returned in October in an Ascot handicapped and having been heavily backed he bolted up, quickening close home to win with an awful lot in hand. He’s now rated 103 and whilst he’s sure to be campaigned with patience from his up and coming trainer, we’re looking forward to seeing him again.
Update: 
Made his reappearance and Doncaster and won in really good style.

Plus 1 for 11…..

Too Darn Hot, John Gosden, 3yo Colt.
A bit of an obvious one so an add on to our list of ten having advised him at 20/1 for the Derby earlier in his 2yo season. So he can’t really be be left out of the list and having been such an impressive 2yo he looks sure to take a lot of beating in the 2’000 Guineas at Newmarket. Having won his debit impressively by 7 lengths he was stepped into Group 3 company just 3 weeks later and was equally impressive against some highly regarded types. Next stop the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and off what was a very strong pace he picked up the leaders when asked, showing an electric turn of foot to win comfortably. His season ended with another hugely impressive performance when winning the Dewhurst Stakes where again he quickened really well and finished his race off very strongly.
He’s bred to want middle distances, being a full brother to both So Mi Dar and Lah Ti Dar both of whom were very classy over 1m2f and the latter of the 2 over 1m4f. Too Darn Hot has shown so much pace and seems to have more traits of his sire Dubawi, so may not stay as well as his sisters. In addition his stride pattern is quite short, which is more indicative of a speed horse.
He does at this stage look more of a Guineas horse than a Derby horse. But lets wait and see how he’s progressed from 2 to 3, as if he’s grown a little perhaps those staying traits will come with age.
Whilst he’s a short priced Fav for the 2’000 Guineas we’ll wait to see him either in a trial or the big race itself before making a decision on the race; and very much the same with regard he Derby.
We are on at 20/1, having advised him last season, so we’re hopefully he’ll look more of a stayer this season and if he wins the Guineas connections may give the Derby a go.
Whatever his preferred trip this season, he’s certainly one to look forward too.
Advised Ante Post for the Derby at 20/1 – Likely Non Runner.
Update:
Now misses the 2000 Guineas after a slight setback, he’ll hopefully return to action soon and still have a crack at Epsom.
Reappeared in the Dante and whilst running really well in 2nd place, the decision seems to be that he’ll step back to a mile, as he didn’t quite stay the trip.
Ran an okay race in the Irish Guineas after an interrupted preparation and then ran a much better race in the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he looked the likely winner when quickening. Frankie suggested he didn’t quite stay, so perhaps a drop to 7f or 3ven 6f next time and he bizarrely shows so much pace from one bred to want a trip!.
Back to his brilliant best on France, winning impressively.
Won the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, but unfortunately picked up an injury and will be retired to stud.

 

Ante Post Patent:
With our two advised Ante Post Bets from the Ten To Follow, along with our only advice for Cheltenham 2020, we’ve had a long range Patent, so 3 Singles, 3 Doubles and the Treble; each way. – Frustrating to have non runners… but that’s the risk with long term Ante Pot Bets.

Epsom Oaks, 31st May 2019 – Iridessa 16/1 – Non Runner.
York, Ebor Handicap, 24th August 2019 – Rock Eagle 20/1 – Non Runner.
Cheltenham, Ryanair Chase, 12th March 2020 – A Plus Tard 20/1

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