Grand National Trends:

Grand National Trends:

The Grad National can look like a bit of a lottery, and many people look at trends to help them narrow down the field… Well the trends are changing…

The usual trends are based on, the AGE of the horse, the DISTANCE they’ve won over before, how good their JUMPING is, if they’ve had a RECENT RUN and how much WEIGHT they carry.

With regard Distance, you simply require a horse that has proven itself over at least 3 miles before, be that having won or placed at least 3 times in the past. This being the Grand National we’d really expect the majority of runners to pass that criteria.

Jumping or being a decent jumper goes without saying over these fences, but the occasional previous fall or unseating of a jockey is no bar to success, only 3 of the past 10 winners hadn’t had either of those blemishes on their record prior to winning the National.

A Recent Run is something a number of Stats Sites point towards, but with modern training techniques horses are fitter when fresh than they used to be; One For Arthur won after a break of almost 3 months and Neptune Collonges over 50 days.

You’ll find a number of statistics available online for the Great Race, but with the trends of racing changing in recent years; handicaps becoming far more competitive with higher rated runners etc, many statistics based on simple numbers over a period are now not as accurate as one may think.

For example, having reviewed a number of statistical sites, we’ve seen a major focus on suggesting horses aged 9 to 12 have a huge {72360743abcd4e1247ba06428ec606fdf75f8b580141c6e281ef8c5920e36d7e} win ratio. This is true over that time period, but the race has been won by an 8yo in 3 of the past 4 years. The number of 8 year old winners over 25 years is four, which is lower than five 11yo winners, or seven 10yo and also seven 9yo winners. But the trends are changing!

The Grand National is a demanding test so a degree of experience counts for a lot. Experience of racing in the hustle and bustle of a big field previously must be a benefit. As in the Grand National where they invariably go off to the first fence at a rate of knots, competition for an early place is fierce. Plenty of jumping experience is also something that comes with age and racing, which over these fences is a big help. One other factor would be how they handle the occasion, as the atmosphere is something some younger horses may well have not experienced before.

As highlighted above the previous trends used to be finding a horse aged 9 to 12, but that’s changed with 8yo’s really coming into their own now. It’s more a case of dropping the 12yo’s who have won just 2 of the past 25 races and bringing in 8yo’s.

23 of the past 25 races were won by a horse aged 8, 9, 10 or 11.
10 of the past 10 races were won by a horse aged 8, 9, 10 or 11.

Over such a long distance you’d expect and many of the trends would suggest weight being carried has to be a factor.
Of the last 25 years only 5 winners have carried over 11st or more with 20 winners carrying less than 11st. That said again the trends are starting to equal out, as over the past 10 years it’s a 50/50 split with as much as 11-09 being carried by Many Clouds in 2015, indicative of better class horses running in the race these days.

20 of the last 25 winners carried less than 11 st.
5 of the last 25 winners carried 11 st or more – BUT all of those 5 winners were in the last 5 years.

Statistical Conclusion:
The 25 Year Trends or now simply out dated.
Age you need to be between the ages of 8 and 11
Weight doesn’t really matter.

This may not have helped narrow the field down that much, but it may have prevented 25 year old stats from pointing you away from the potential winner.

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